Predictions: The TikTok ban, Exodus to RedNote + Future of Travel to China
Well, it’s happened, folks.
First of all, thank you to those of you that followed me here from TikTok. Still quite jetlagged after a 3 week long trip ending in China, I woke up at 2:45 this morning to see TikTok has been formally banned in the US. We had a good run, though I have my thoughts about which content was rewarded and how, and how that led to utter brain rot in its final days (if I had to see another “what to do in X country” from a person that is clearly on their first trip to said country and did no at-home assignments to learn about the culture, history or language of said country, I was going to lose my bananas).
RedNote: The Gateway to Renewed Chinese-International Relations?
Since I have my own space now to share thoughts freely and make predictions, I wanted to briefly touch on the exodus to “RedNote” (小红书) and how that will change travel to China. Then, we’ll talk China travel predictions + how to take advantage of the public’s newfound interest in China.
First, allow me to briefly rejoice - but also primarily lament - in what we saw transpire in the past week. TikTok users are angry, and at least 700,000 of them discovered and flocked to RedNote (source) and suddenly “discovered China”, at least on the surface. Suddenly everyone’s feed is full of “Wow! China is actually amazing and advanced!” “The food is so cheap!” “The electric cars are so cheap!” “Life looks so much better over there” - which is mostly true, but still a surface scratching of the truth. After decades of Sinophobia exacerbated by the Great Fire Wall, it’s lovely to see fear and hatred transform into benevolent curiosity.
For those currently in the China discovery phase, I just want to say: If the name of the app (which literally translated is Little Red Book, not “RedNote” as it’s been cleansed to in the West) didn’t trigger any gut feelings or memories on first pass, you are already in the danger zone.
Understanding China requires a lot of time, respect for lengthy and complicated history and a deep appreciation of cultural nuance. The pendulum swings quite quickly in the court of American opinion, where the morality police reign loud and free.
My advice to you is this: Do not travel to China with only google translate, alipay and a prayer.
The Chinese people can be painfully tolerant in no small part due to 面子 - saving face - culture, but make no mistake, action in China is always swift and decisive. For this reason, please do not be bad guests, which will quickly lead to tighter restrictions on tourism and for those of us that need to return home to family.
In the Shanghai History Museum last week, I stumbled across a quote attributed to Xu Guanqi regarding the opening of Shanghai to foreigners in the 18th century that was quite apt and paraphrases to the same, but Sun Tzu said it best in 孙子兵法· (The Art of War), “Know thy enemy and know thyself”. They know you. Do you know them?
China has a long and complicated history with allowing foreigners into its land. It’s worth doing your homework and approaching the situation with humility. Don’t just do it for the content.
If you want a more in depth post on how to be a good tourist in China, just let me know.
Predictions: How I Hope the Loss of TikTok + RedNote Exodus Will Change Travel to China
塞翁失馬，焉知非福
For anyone that has China on their radar, you already know the pain. COVID killed flight capacity to China. Supply and demand dictates that the prices would rise significantly, and they have. Pre-2020 I never spent more than $600s RT for a US-China route except once - to evacuate China during CNY January 2020 as COVID crept in and the borders began to close. This was the norm, and I’ve heard west coast could’ve even had RTs in the $400s.
A year ago, Reuter’s forecasted an 80% return to China travel by EOY 2024, but that inventory spike - if it happened - certainly did not apply to US-China flights. Passenger capacity on US-China routes is still 79% lower than it was in 2019 (source). Hong Kong, a fantastic and often cheaper entryway into the mainland as its now connected by even newer and faster high speed trains, has been reduced to 3 carriers flying US routes, down 44% from 2019 levels (source).
Flight prices are hard to peg because of how dynamic they are, but across the US, I would estimate prices are still up 50-100% compared to 2019, but they’re slowly climbing down. They even look better than when I was searching desperately for a China-US leg at the end of my SAS run back in October (for a Jan travel date).
To get on the same footing, let’s look at some data points across the US:
Indirect flights only from NYC - PVG, starting at $1k
ORD - PVG, indirect only, from $1200+
ORD-HKG from $1100s on a reasonable indirect route or $1400 non-stop.
I haven’t seen anything this low ($700s) ORD-HKG in a while, but the route is undeniably shitty, with an 18 hour layover to explore Vancouver. Not a bad place to be stuck, but you’ll be out some cash or at least 15,000 Hyatt points in order to make this decision work.
LAX-HKG looking up, but undeniably still 50%+ over pre-covid prices
Finally, a quite reasonable - for this day and age - flight LAX-PVG RT, but beware the domestic layover. I always skip it if I can (though I have to say the Chinese carriers were all VERY punctual on my last 4 domestic flights this year).
Another very decent options - direct at least - but good golly, in my mind, I should be able to find SEA-PVG on a good day (Monday-Monday?) at about 60% of that price.
That should be enough data points to all be aligned, yes?
My point is, it’s still expensive to go to China - not as expensive as it has been the last few years - but still higher than comparable flight sales in the region.
For my data points from 2024, I spent:
$432 roundtrip this year YYC-ICN, points down to HKG and back; booked 3/24, flew 8/24
$939 one way PVG-DFW-IAD, and I ONLY did this because SWU space was available; booked 10/24, flew 1/25
$299 roundtrip YVR-HKG (taxes only, paid for by HK govt); booked 5/23, flew 12/23 - 1/24
$1412 (?) roundtrip YVR-HKG for my husband to accompany; booked 5/23, flew 12/23 - 1/24
Yes, I pulled some impossible things together, and that’s the only way I could swallow making those journeys. It’s just too expensive in comparison to other flight sales on my list.
Predictions for China Travel in 2025 and Beyond
Like a blind item reading, let me warn you: Everything I’m about to say is alleged and based entirely on the spidey senses of my autistic pattern recognition.
My prediction is that due to increased demand from increased interest in China, we will see a lot more flight capacity open up. Routes that have been frozen due to carriers not wanting to fly them (no demand) but not wanting to lose them, will reopen. Let me be concrete, since we’re just making predictions:
Return throughout 2025 to pre-covid travel demand and therefore supply in US-China market
Temporarily prices will not decrease on these routes as flyers fight for tickets
After, return to near pre-covid flight prices as carriers fight to capture this demand
Stable demand for China tourism in 2027 and beyond, once the initial interest is captured, and some return trips planned
It’s very possible a single event or the culmination of events of poorly behaved tourists causes the government to crack down on it’s visa free policy or administration of visas to China (never forget that they canceled all our visas during COVD), which could throw a wrench on the timelines in predictions above or cause airlines to abruptly decrease schedules
In short, either go RIGHT now while winter prices are reasonable or lay low for a little while as people start to make their trips to China, but by the end of 2026, you should be able to reap the benefit of everyone else’s hard work in returning supply. Chinese New Year 2027, anyone?
Cheap Ways to Travel to China Now
If you simply can’t wait and you want to go now, use a few tricks from my book on how to get to/from China cheaply:
Book to/from Hong Kong + High Speed Train into China
Yes, I understand capacity is down still. We just touched on it. But many people planning trips to China who “just discovered” China won’t realize that you can enter Hong Kong freely, and a 20 minute high speed train ride from Kowloon later, you’re smack dab in the middle of Shenzhen. Hong Kong has long been a cheap way for me to get from the US to China without bumping into (PREVIOUSLY very delayed / cancelation prone) Chinese carriers.
Book to/from Japan + ULCC your way to China
Japan has great flight - and specifically award flight - capacity right now. AA and AS both receive last minute flights to Tokyo for 35k one way in economy or down to 60k one way in business. VS is a great took for booking those fancy ANA business and first class tickets (I still need to release mine - anyone need 3/1 dates?). In short, there’s myriad ways to get to/from Japan, and most good travel students have been studying these routes hard over the past 2-3 years.
Once you’re in Japan, you could do connect on through to China (though be advised, you should carry a passport that allows entry to Japan without a visa JUST in case) or you could do a mini trip-within-a-trip in Japan first before going to China. Relax and rest at an onsens, and fly the next day, or spend a few days walking leisurely to parks and museums, dining at world class restaurants, staying in exquisite Hyatts, then be on your way. It’s up to you.
My point is: the inventory is still there, but people’s interest is waning in Japan now that China is the new shiny toy. Everyone who wanted desperately to go has now been once or twice, so they’ll move on. Take advantage of the situation.
By the way, do you remember me saying last year when I was in Kyoto (May 2024) that 1. overtourism was currently a problem in Japan especially Kyoto 2. tourism always ebbs and flows and 3. I would be back when the tourism ebbed? 2025 is that time. If you want to visit a slightly less crowded Japan, try it this year.
Book your way to South Korea + ULCC to China
Same, same but different - Interest in Seoul was MASSIVE in 2022, but it’s cooled off slightly by now. However, the flight capacity between China and Seoul is INSANE, so the prices are very competitive.
I flew to Seoul on Westjet, once on Delta (point trips) and next will try Asiana because their pricing can be surprisingly good with correct routing ;) iykyk
Try searching for award seats on seats.aero to/from Seoul ICN and consider flying from ICN or GMP to anywhere else in Asia, not just China. The routes from Seoul are always surprisingly cheap and flush with options.
What’s Next?
We’re going to see plenty of 老外 China content in 2025 (on… Reels?) that will only push the tourism surge more and more.
Like South Korea, people might eventually start to discover “the dark side” once they’ve initiated themselves past a single episode of a C-Drama, or when they discover the Cultural Revolution and need to give pause to whether they feel comfortable traveling to a country with such a powerful government headed by a no-term-limit leader - it’s just a matter of time. When they do, flights will once again be periodically cheap while airlines have inventory but some people have decided to pause on their vigor for China. I predict this window to be in late 2026 / early 2027.
Eventually, people will realize you must leave room for nuance, separate the government and people, and you can’t miss out on the people, food and history for the government’s sins.. and they’ll be back.
In the meantime, keep an eye on flight prices and keep going where the population isn’t at any given time. Travel is meant for exploration and appreciation of other cultures. It’s not meant to be a trend. Stay above the fray by thinking in the opposite direction.
Wishing you all cheap flights + wonderful carriers!
